Résumé
In this article five distinct arguments were advanced for the evolution of, or sequencing of, regional trade agreements. Sequencing, it would seem, can be a function of many factors - technical expertise, intra-regional and extra-regional geopolitical factors, political dynamics triggered by current intra-regional block discrimination against exports from non-members, the logic of policy complementarities and cross-border spillovers reinforced by inertia, capacity constraints, and self-discovery, and technological and seemingly unrelated policy changes in the financial sector. The very fact that so many factors can interact to determine the sequence of regional integration is likely to make precise predictions infeasible. Even so, to the extent that empirical counterparts to these factors can be identified, statistical analyses may shed light on their relative importance. Moreover, further research may point to the importance of other factors, or to the irrelevance of certain factors in specific contexts. Scholars will also have to discern just how relevant the experience of one region is for other regions of the world economy and whether any general lessons emerge. My comparison of the East Asian and European experience suggests that some factors are not that general (such as technocratic entrepreneurship) whereas others work in different ways in different regions (such as geopolitical factors and concerns about competitiveness).
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Extrait
The Sequencing of Regional Integration
1 Introduction
It is well known that the number of preferential trading agreements signed since 1990 far exceeds those concluded in previous years.1 While scholars in economics, political science, international relations, and international business have devoted considerable attention to individual episodes of regional integration (analysing their causes and consequences), far less is known about the factors that determine the sequence of preferential trading agreements that a nation, or group of nations, enters into. Even in the case of European integration it was not until the mid-1990s that an economic theory, with solid microeconomic foundations, was advanced to account for the expanding membership of first the European Economic Community and then the European Union.In this article I will describe and assess five explanations for the sequencing of regional integration over time, and discuss their relevance in the European and East Asian context. As the Appendix Table makes clear, the latter region has seen over thirty preferential agreements be proposed or negotiated since 1998.2 Singapore and Korea have been particularly active in this regard and are parties to twelve and nine such initiatives, respectively. Meanwhile the European Union has recently expanded its membership to include twenty-five nations, and two more nations may well join by the end of the decade. My goal is to identify the key causal factors said to be at work. In so doing, readers will see that most of the arguments are qualitative in nature and that there is plenty of room for further empirical and theoretical development.The focus here on sequencing of preferential trade agreements should not be taken to imply that other matters relating to the effects of regional integration on members, non-members, and on the multilateral trading system in general, are deemed unimportant.3 These are indeed significant matters and I would argue that a better understanding of the sequencing of preferential trade agreements would enrich our understanding of these other topics as well. For example, a fully developed theory of sequencing t...Voir le contenu complet de ce document
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