Résumé
Switzerland has had a long standing surplus on its current account. But over the past 15 years that surplus has surged to levels unmatched by nearly any other OECD country at any point. This paper looks at the surplus from a balance of payments vantage point as well as from the optic of the excess of national saving over domestic investment. It then seeks possible explanations for the uptrend and assesses whether it results to any extent from market, institutional or policy failures that could call for reforms. A number of important measurement issues are raised. But the key recommendation is that the authorities should prepare for a possible sharp increase in the value of the Swiss franc if and when investors engaged in the "carry trade" unwind their positions. To that end they should examine labor, capital and product markets with a view to ensuring they are as flexible as possible and that factors are as mobile as possible, both geographically and sectorally. This will allow any necessary adjustment to a higher exchange rate to be smoothly accommodated. [PUB ABSTRACT]
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Extrait
The Significance of Switzerland's Enormous Current Account Surplus
1 Recent developments in Switzerland's balance of payments
1.1 A traditionally sizeable external surplus has been on an upwards trend since 1991 and has surged since 2002Switzerland has traditionally recorded a surplus on its current external account. Prior to the 1990s that surplus showed no particular trend as a share of its GDP, averaging around 4%. However, beginning in 1991 it began what has been an almost uninterrupted ascent, culminating in the extraordinary figure of 16.8% of GDP in 2007 (Figure 1).' Indeed, this figure is unsurpassed in the history of OECD countries with the exception of Norway, though only in 2006 (thanks to its substantial oil revenues). But Switzerland has no significant natural resources. Its surplus should therefore be more amenable to analysis using the economist's normal toolkit. The question to be faced here is what has caused this development and whether the surplus is appropriate for Switzerland, or, if not, what market or policy failures might be operating, and what should be done to remedy the situation.Taking the normal balance of payments components of the current account, it is obvious that, even if goods and especially non factor services2 have likewise been in gently rising surplus over the past 15 years, the main driver of the surging current account surplus has been factor income and investment income in particular.3 Indeed, the CHF 61.2 billion balance on investment income in 2007 represented 71.5% of the total surplus (Table 1); that outcome was exceeded only by those recorded by Japan and the United Kingdom. Those receipts are first and foremo...Voir le contenu complet de ce document
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