Résumé
Many observers are now pessimistic about the prospect of completing the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations, at least in the short run. The realisation that so much remains to be negotiated before the forthcoming US presidential primaries and elections has raised the prospect of the Doha Round unravelling or drifting from later this year until the second half of 2009, at the earliest. Having described the developments in the Doha Round up to the issuance of the Chairman's texts in July 2007 this paper examines why reciprocal trade negotiations, whose success has been trumpeted in prior rounds, have run into so much trouble this time around. Four factors are identified in this regard and their implications for the near term prospects of completing the Doha Round discussed. Longer run lessons for policymaking are also spelt out. In particular it is argued that further multilateral trade initiatives should be designed with the following three attributes in mind: substantive relevance, political viability, and feasible implementation.
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Extrait
Reciprocity and the Doha Round Impasse: Lessons for the Near Term and After
1 Introduction
In the middle of 2007 just under six years after the launch of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations there is a pervasive gloom about this initiative's prospects, at least in the near term. Repeated deadlocks, many missed deadlines, and convergence at glacial speed appear to have convinced many that the prospect of concluding the Doha Round later this year is slight. Even optimists, who have argued that plenty has been achieved in this trade negotiation and that a deal can be struck in 2007, must face the prospect that any agreement is very unlikely to meet the expectations created at the Round's launch. These perceptions matter when trying to convince prime ministers and presidents to spend time and political capital on World Trade Organization (WTO-)related matters, including the task of taking on the vested interests that stand in the way of concluding the Doha Round in the first place. The Doha Round is, therefore, in a rut. The impasse has quite possibly become a selffulfilling prophecy.The purpose of this paper is to examine why the process of reciprocal trade negotiation, which many credit with being so successful in prior multilat- eral trade rounds, has run into so much trouble in the Doha Round. I argue that four factors have combined to undermine the effectiveness of reciprocal trade reform and I assess the likelihood that changes in these four factors will enable the Doha Round to be completed before the end of this year. Another reason for examining why reciprocity has not delivered this time around is that I wanted to establish whether there are any guidelines for policymakers when structuring potential future multilateral trade initiatives. I point to three attributes that the Doha Round experience suggests must be present for a multilateral trade initiative to stand a chance of success and suggest these attributes could be applied as follows. Looking forward, and assuming that the Doha Round is not completed in 2007, 1 suggest that the likely lull between the end of this year and the second half of 2009 (the earliest moment when serious negotiations can possibly begin again after the US presidential election) could be used to identify alternative multilateral trade initiatives to continuing the Doha Round negotiations. Policymakers would then not only decide in 2009 or 2010 whether or not to resume the Doha Round. One option might be to replace the Doha Round initiative with another multilateral trade initiative (whether the latter is called the Doha Round is largely a presentational matter). In short, then I examine the near term prospects of the Doha Round and identify some longer run implications for policymakers seeking to maximise the benefits from reciprocal multilateral trade negotiations.The remainder of this paper is organised as follows. In the next section I describe the most recent developments in the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations, specifically the contents of and reaction to the draft modalities on agriculture and industrial products issued by the Chairman of the respective WTO commit...Voir le contenu complet de ce document
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