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The Prospects for the World Trading System 2010: «Events, Dear Boy, Events»*
1 Introduction
The purpose of this paper is to identify the factors likely to have the greatest impact on the world trading system and on commercial policymaking during 2010. Having just experienced a year (2009) when trade-related outcomes differed markedly from those expected at its start, setting appropriate expectations for policymakers and anticipating possible threats to global commercial interdependence are essential if exports are to contribute the most to a broad-based economic recovery in 2010. In this paper it will be useful to distinguish between the likely impact of ongoing international processes relating to commercial policies, such as the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations, and events that may impinge upon national commercial policymaking but whose scale, likelihood, and impact are less well known. (The latter being the unanticipated "events" referred to in the subtitle of this paper.) Here it will be argued that the potential impact of the former is likely to be very limited, offering little prospects for creating new commercial opportunities. In contrast, the latter may prove decisive and are certainly worth economie policymakers undertaking some contingency planning in advance. Moreover, many of th...Voir le contenu complet de ce document
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