Résumé
In an integrated global economy, specialisation in trade is an increasingly prominent strategy. A labor-abundant, resource-rich economy like Indonesia faces stiff competition in labor-intensive manufactures; meanwhile, rapid growth in demand for resources from China and India exposes it to the 'curse' of resource wealth. This diminishes prospects for more diversified growth based on renewable resources like human capital. Using an international panel data set we explore the influence of resource wealth, foreign direct investment and human capital on the share of skill-intensive products in exports. FDI and human capital increase this share; resource wealth diminishes it. We use the results to compare Indonesia with Thailand and Malaysia. Indonesia's reliance on skill-intensive exports would have been greater had it achieved higher levels of FDI and skills. Its performance in accumulating these endowments, and its relative resource abundance, impede diversification in production and trade. We present policy options flowing from these findings accommodated. [PUB ABSTRACT]
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Extrait
Prospects for Skills-Based Export Growth in a Labor-Abundant, Resource-Rich Developing Economy
1 Introduction
Indonesia is an important case study in economic development both by virtue of its size (it is the world's fourth most populous nation) and for the lessons it may offer to other countries. One of the world's poorest and least promising economies in the 1950s, it has had an impressive record of growth and structural transformation since the establishment of the New Order government (1966-98). Fifteen years ago, in a stunning vindication of the economic gains of the New Order era, Indonesia (along with Southeast Asian neighbours Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand) was included in the group of so-called high-performing Asian economies (HPAEs) whose growth successes defined the 'East Asian miracle' (World Bank 1993). For the halfdecade 1993-97, Indonesia's per capita income placed it among the lowermiddle income economies - a position it relinquished during the Asian crisis but regained in 2003 (World Bank 2008).Despite these gains, Indonesia's recent growth has been persistently slower than that of its closest HPAE comparators, Malaysia and Thailand. Taking 1990 as a base, Figure 1 shows that by 2006 Indonesia's per capita income, measured in PPP (purchasing power parity) adjusted dollars, had grown by 61%; Thailand's by 76%, and Malaysia's by 81%. The ratio of Indonesia's per capita income to that of Thailand had fallen from over 48% to 44%, and the ratio for Malaysia from 40% to 35%. While Indonesia's growth record is healthy by the standards of developing economies worldwide, a puzzle remains as to why its performance within the dynamic East and Southeast Asian region has lagged behind.What explains this regional growth difference? Is there any evidence of a long term slowdown in Indonesia's growth rate, either now or in the future? What would it take for Indonesia to reach the 'next level' - uppermiddle income status - or at least to consolidate its position in the lowermiddle income group? Obviously, there are many ways in which these questions can be framed and answered. In this paper we focus only on Indonesia's growth challenges and opportunities as a trade-dependent economy, one that has abundant endowments of natural resources and labor and is also a participant in the dynamically growing Asian regional trade in manufactures. In particular, we focus on the likely interactions between resource abundance and the prospects for growth through participation in the booming regional trade in skill-intensive parts and components. What can we learn about Indonesia from an examination of international and regional data? What policy lessons can be drawn, for Indonesia or for other developing nations?We first explore the particular growth challenges faced by economies abundant in labor and natural resources within a global economy that is increasingly integrated, that rewards specialisation but that is increasingly dominated by some very large developing...Voir le contenu complet de ce document
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