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Nations and technology getting bolder.
Unmanned aircraft continue to make remarkable progress, taking over-increasing shares in a growing number of the legacy roles of fixed- and rotary-wing manned aircraft, and of satellites. Worryingly though, Europe is lagging way behind the Americans and the Israelis, which largely depends on them to fill their needs, while China and other Asian nation are quickly climbing up the learning curve.
Spending on drone procurement is steadily increasing. The Pentagon, by far the largest spender on such systems (with over two-thirds of the global total), ran through $ 4.5 billion in fiscal year 2010 (FY10) in funding procurement of 1545 air vehicles, plus spares, modifications and development. Some $ 4.8 billion was requested for FY12, although the number of new drones has fallen to 1395. The latest market study report by the Teal Group, predicts that over the next ten years global spending on drones will increase from the current $ 5.9 billion to $11.3 billion. New technologies are maturing, making possible large air vehicles with endurances measured in weeks or months. Advances in materials and low Reynolds Number aerodynamics are meanwhile leading to miniaturised drones that can mimic the flight of birds and insects. Between extremes of scale, optionally-manned or unmanned combat air vehicles (Ucavs) appear increasingly likely to form the so-called sixth jet fighter generation. Work is meanwhile proceeding on inflight refuelling of drones (notably the Darpa KQ-X programme) and their safe navigation through civil airspace. Tests are being made to establish whether drones can be made more damage tolerant. As ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) drones carry increasing numbers of increasingly capable sensors, efforts are being made to address the problem of downlink bandwidth limitations, perhaps by carrying out more data processing on-board the aircraft. Drone manufacturers in America, Europe and Israel are making hay while the sun shines, but in the foreseeable future many may be steamrollered by low-cost newcomers, not only from China and India, but also from Southeast Asia and Latin America. Only the most technologically advanced of the current drone producers may survive. The following report takes the form of a series of modules. The first discusses recent developments that may lead to major advances in the use of drones. The second deals with current and planned drone operations by the various US military services, in most respects the world's leading players in this field. The third section reviews illustrative examples in each drone category. The final section examines drone developments and purchases in one of the less-publicised regions of the global drone business, Latin America. Other regions will be discussed in subsequent editions of this Compendium. The Bombers Drones desingned primarily for ISR duties are already uerd to deliver bombs and missiles in low-intensity conflicts and in areas well removed from war zones, the question now is to what extent stealthy, dedicated Ucavs will be able to take over the traditional roles of conventional fighter/attack aircraft. Aside from eliminating risks to aircrew, the Ucav will avoid ...See the full content of this document
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