Extrait
The Devil Is in the Details: The Implementation of Stimulus Packages and Their Effects On International Commerce
Introduction
In terms of macroeconomic policy the response by governments to the current sharp global economic downturn has been markedly more aggressive than that executed during the Great Depression. Monetary and fiscal policies have been substantially relaxed and many governments have borrowed heavily in their attempts to pump aggregate demand into national economies. The so-called stimulus packages that have been enacted over the past year or so are in addition to the built-in fiscal stabilisers that cushion economies during cyclical downturns. Table 1 reproduces a recent summary by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) of the magnitude of the fiscal stimulus packages undertaken by its members (OECD 2009). The size of the United States' stimulus package stands out in comparison to its OECD peers, although its scale is on a par with that of China's.At times of considerable macroeconomic strain when governments are desperate to revive national economies, such as now, a tension of interest to trade policymakers arises, namely, that between a government adhering to its international commitments and pursuing fiscal stimuli that seek maximum domestic short-run advantage. These episodes might reveal the extent to which existing international disciplines on government procurement "bite", the manner and extent to which governments attempt to circumvent lawfully their international obligations, and implications of discriminatory state purchasing practices for trade and investment flows.Three other factors account for current interest in the commerce-related implications of fiscal stimulus packages. First, the scale of these packages represents a substantial injection of demand into national economies, with the potential to shift a greater share of national demand towards domestically-produced goods and services. The question then arises as to whether the short- and longer-term implications for trade flows are substantial and, in turn, whether this is likely to trigger retaliation by trading partners.Second, in an era of considerable international outsourcing, the manner in which imported parts and components are treated in any revised national procurement regulations could have considerable effects on all along the supply chain, implicating many nations' commerce. In turn this raises the question as to whether domestic firms that have invested considerably in international supply chains will lobby against discriminatory state purchasing rules and whether their opposition is decisive.Third, the current disciplines in international trade agreements are, to put it mildly, incomplete in terms of government entities covered, product and services covered, and the instruments of procurement policy. Exist...Voir le contenu complet de ce document
Liens sponsorisés
