Résumé
Although the Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration officially commits World Trade Organization (WTO) members to making significant strides in their negotiations before 30 April 2006, there must be considerable doubt as to whether the Doha Round can be completed in the near to medium term. In this paper I identify several political factors on both sides of the Atlantic that call into question whether the Doha Round of trade negotiations can be successfully completed in 2006. Furthermore, given the presidential elections in France and the United States in 2007 and 2008, respectively, I argue that the next plausible window of opportunity for completing the Doha Round will open in 2009.
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Extrait
Can the Doha Round Be Completed in 2006?
1 Introduction
The Sixth Session of the WTCTs Ministerial Conference took place in Hong Kong during 13-18 December 2005. A Ministerial Declaration was issued at the conclusion of the conference and opened with the following four claims:"We reaffirm the Declarations and Decisions we adopted at Doha, as well as the Decision adopted by the General Council on 1 August 2004, and our full commitment to give effect to them. We renew our resolve to complete the Doha Work Programme fully and to conclude the negotiations launched at Doha successfully in 2006." (paragraph 1, WT/MIN(05)/W/3/Rev.2)There may well have been private agreements or tacit understandings reached at this Conference and these may qualify any third party assessment of the outcome in Hong Kong. However, a review of the Ministerial Declaration and associated press reports indicate that the following happened in Hong Kong: (1) WTO members were unable to make much progress in the agricultural trade negotiations beyond agreeing to eliminate export subsidies, (2) although a formula approach was agreed for the Non-Agricultural Market Access (NAMA) negotiations, the specific parameters to be applied by different WTO members (in determining how much they will cut their tariff bindings and how many goods they can exempt from such cuts) have yet to be agreed, (3) little progress was made in the service sector negotiations, (4) WTO members have committed themselves to intensify their negotiations on the above matters in 2006, with the overall ob...Voir le contenu complet de ce document
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